RISK OF RECURRENCE AFTER 2 YRS?

Just wondering does anyone know the risk for recurrence for stage 2a tnbc breast cancer after 2 years?I heard after 3 years it drops greatly. Thanks!

Yes, Donna you are right.  If we can make it to three years, we should be ok to make it to five.  This is why I am shy to say survivor until the three years is up.... I survived the treatment but not necessarily the cancer, yet...

Thank you so much for posting the graph.  I saw my oncologist last week and just had this discussion with him.  It helped to actually see it with my own eyes.  I know there is hope for those of us with TNBC.  I just reached my 4 year mark.  Life is good!

Karen

Here's how I think about risk:

The recurrence curve has its peak at around 2 years. That means that if we are going to recur, it will most likely be around then.  However, as you can see from the curves, about half the women who will eventually recur do so in the first couple of years.  This means that if you are 2 years and a couple of months out and have not yet recurred, you have already put about half the risk of recurrence behind you.  Which means that as a stage II your risk goes from about 40% to about 20%, most of which is concentrated over the next year.  If you make it to three years, your risk of ever recurring goes down to about 8%, and if you make it to 4 it goes down to about 5%.    

Women with higher stage disease (stage IIIs) have curves that I think are biased toward shorter recurrence times.  So if you were diagnosed stage IIIb, for instance, and have made it to 2.5 years without recurring, you are very likely to remain NED even though your overall risk was higher to begin with.   That said, I suspect that with very small tumors the curve shifts toward the right.  Recurrences might be a bit later, though one's risk for recurring is overall smaller.   The location of the peak marks the amount of time it takes disease to go from subclinical/sub-radiological to clinical/visible.  Since triple negatives are less likely to have dormancy after treatment, more cancer initially corresponds to less time it takes for it to become evident.   At least, this is the way I think it works (I could be wrong).

Denise

Where is the Asan Medical Center?

Is anyone here on PARP Inhibitors??????????

Hummingbird10, I had been told MANY times that I had dense breasts but never that I was at a higher risk for breast cancer.

cher

Hi,

I also wanted to know where ASAN center was located so I googled it and found it in South Korea. So the table and numbers shown reflect the follow up study made as to the women treated in that hospital. I'm not a doctor but from what I've read so far I understand that these numbers do change a little from one population to another (and I've seen cancer numbers behave differently between east and west ...). But, one thing I wanted you to know is that when I am worried about statistics I like to read an article written by Jay Gould, an influential evolutionary biologist, that gives a nice perspective on numbers and cancer. It makes me feel better and try to focus on how to make things better for myself. Here's the link:

http://cancerguide.org/median_not_msg.html

Best,

Natalia


Edited by nmunoz - Jun 29 2010 at 3:11pm

Donna....it's interesting that when I sometimes post on breastcancer.org--I usually get  helpful, interested replies!

Hi Donna,